Part 2 Part I: Structural Indicators and Risk Assessment ModelsĬhapter 3 A Risk Assessment Model of Ethnopolitical RebellionĬhapter 4 The State Failure Project: Early Warning Research for U.S. Top contributors offer answers along with analyses as they move from early warning to early response in their policy recommendations.Ĭhapter 1 Preventive Measures: An Overview We argue that new approaches to assessing and managing systemic risk in international relations are required, inspired by principles of evolutionary theory. This volume of original essays examines crisis early warning factors at different levels, in different settings, and judges their effectiveness according to various models. A vital policy question is whether failures can be diagnosed far enough in advance to facilitate effective international efforts at prevention or peaceful transformation. They also may pose long-term and costly challenges of rebuilding shattered governments and societies. The international consequences of such crises are profound, often threatening regional security and requiring major inputs of humanitarian assistance. State failure, ethnopolitical war, genocide, famine, and refugee flows are variants of a type of complex political and humanitarian crisis, exemplified during the 1990s in places like Somalia, Bosnia, Liberia, and Afghanistan.
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